| Working Paper #8-96 | |
| High Real Interest Rates in the Aftermath of Disinflation: Is it a Lack of Credibility? | |
| Graciela L.Kaminsky and Leonardo Leiderman | |
High real interest rates have been observed in many countries for several months after the adoption of disinflation programs. While they may reflect primarily a liquidity crunch, high ex-post real interest rates can also be explained in terms of an ex post error in inflation expectations that reflects a lack of credibility of the low-inflation policy. The latter hypothesis is tested using data for Argentina, Israel, and Mexico during the implementation of the stabilization programs in the mid-1980s. |
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| Jel Nos.: E40. E43. E52. E63. | |
| Keywords: Disinflation. Credibility. Inflation. Expectations. |